E-Fuel Cost Estimator

An e-fuel (electrofuel or Power-to-X fuel) is a synthetic fuel made from green hydrogen and a carbon source (captured CO₂) or nitrogen, using renewable electricity. Examples include e-methanol, e-ammonia, e-methane, and e-kerosene (e-SAF).

Current techno-economic estimates put e-methanol at roughly 800 to 1200 EUR per tonne, compared to about 350 to 450 EUR per tonne for fossil methanol. Green hydrogen typically drives 50 to 70 percent of the cost.

E-SAF production costs range from about 1500 to 4200 EUR per tonne depending on pathway and CO₂ source, roughly 2 to 6 times the price of fossil jet fuel. Costs near 1500 EUR per tonne are projected to be achievable by 2030 from hybrid solar and wind plants with direct air capture.

The dominant driver is the green hydrogen cost, followed by the CO₂ feedstock cost (especially if direct air capture is used), the synthesis plant capital cost, and electricity for the synthesis step. Capacity factor strongly affects the capital cost share.

LCOF is the constant price per tonne (or per MWh) at which an e-fuel must be sold to recover all capital and operating costs over the plant's lifetime at a given discount rate. It is the e-fuel analogue of LCOH for hydrogen and LCOE for electricity.

Approximately 0.18 t H₂ per t e-ammonia, 0.2 t per t e-methanol, 0.43 t per t e-kerosene, and 0.5 t per t e-methane. The higher the hydrogen requirement, the more the e-fuel cost tracks the green hydrogen price.

E-fuels use captured CO₂ from biogenic sources (15 to 50 EUR/t), high-purity industrial streams (15 to 40 EUR/t), dilute industrial flue gas (40 to 120 EUR/t), or direct air capture (200 to 1000 EUR/t today). e-Ammonia uses nitrogen instead of CO₂, avoiding this cost entirely.

When made from green hydrogen and biogenic or direct-air-captured CO₂, the CO₂ released on combustion was previously removed from the atmosphere or biosphere, so the net combustion CO₂ is treated as near zero. E-fuels from fossil point-source CO₂ reuse the carbon once but are not climate-neutral under most frameworks.

It is the extra cost of the e-fuel versus its fossil equivalent, divided by the CO₂ emissions avoided. Typical values today are 200 to 1000 EUR per tonne CO₂, which is why e-fuels are usually deployed in sectors with mandates (aviation, shipping) rather than on open carbon-price economics alone.

E-fuels stack the cost of green hydrogen, CO₂ capture, and a synthesis plant, and lose 40 to 50 percent of the input energy for liquid fuels. They are most justified where direct electrification is not feasible: long-haul aviation, deep-sea shipping, and certain chemical feedstocks.

Biofuels are made from biomass (crops, waste, residues). E-fuels are made from green hydrogen and captured CO₂ or nitrogen. E-fuels are not land-constrained and can scale with renewable electricity, but are currently more expensive than most biofuels.

Power-to-fuel efficiency (electricity in to fuel energy out) is roughly 50 to 60 percent for e-methanol and e-ammonia, and 40 to 50 percent for Fischer-Tropsch liquids like e-kerosene. The energy loss is the trade-off for producing a high-density, drop-in fuel.